Testable earthquake forecasting
Build earthquake forecast models whose skill is demonstrated in prospective, pre-registered tests such as those run by CSEP, and quantify how much predictability exists at all.
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Open problems
Each problem states how progress is verified and what counts as a contribution. Besides the problems curated here, the catalogue includes open conjectures from Formal Conjectures (with Lean statements), optimization constants and the AlphaEvolve problems. Know one that belongs here? Propose a problem.
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The (binary) Goldbach conjecture
Prove that every even integer greater than 2 is the sum of two primes. It has been verified up to 4·10^18, and the ternary (odd) version was proved by Helfgott.
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The 1/3–2/3 conjecture for balanced pairs in posets
Every finite poset that is not a chain has elements x, y such that x precedes y in between 1/3 and 2/3 of its linear extensions. The best general constant is (5−√5)/10 ≈ 0.276; all posets with up to 14 elements have been verified.
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The Černý conjecture on synchronizing automata
Prove that every synchronizing complete DFA with n states has a reset word of length at most (n−1)². The best general upper bound is about 0.1654·n³ (Shitov 2019). The conjecture has been verified by computer for small automata.
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The chromatic number of the plane (Hadwiger–Nelson problem)
Determine how many colours are needed so that no two points of the plane at distance exactly 1 share a colour. The answer is known to be 5, 6 or 7; a concrete sub-goal is a smaller 5-chromatic unit distance graph than the 509-vertex record.
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The Collatz (3n + 1) conjecture
Prove that iterating n ↦ n/2 (n even), 3n + 1 (n odd) reaches 1 from every positive integer. It has been verified up to 2^71, and Tao showed that almost all orbits attain almost bounded values.
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The cosmological lithium problem
Explain why the lithium-7 abundance observed in old metal-poor halo stars is a factor of about 3–4 below the prediction of standard Big Bang nucleosynthesis with the CMB baryon density.
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The equity premium puzzle
Why have stock returns historically exceeded safe-asset returns by far more than standard consumption-based models with plausible risk aversion predict? Reproducible calibrations on public data count as B-style evidence.
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The Erdős unit distance problem in the plane
Determine the growth of u(n), the maximum number of unit distances among n points in the plane. Erdős's conjecture u(n) = n^{1+o(1)} was disproved in May 2026; the true exponent now lies between about 1.014 (Sawin) and 4/3 (Spencer–Szemerédi–Trotter).
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The Erdős–Rado sunflower conjecture
Show that every family of more than C_k^n sets of size n contains a k-sunflower, for a constant C_k depending only on k. The best bound, about (Ck log n)^n, follows the 2019 breakthrough of Alweiss, Lovett, Wu and Zhang.
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The Erdős–Straus conjecture
Prove that 4/n = 1/x + 1/y + 1/z has a solution in positive integers for every n ≥ 2. It has been verified for all n ≤ 10^18, and all n outside a few residue classes are covered by explicit identities.
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The Erdős–Szekeres happy ending problem
Is every set of 2^{n−2}+1 points in general position in the plane guaranteed to contain n points in convex position? Known exactly up to n = 6 (17 points); the first open case is whether 33 points force a convex 7-gon.
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The exponent ω of matrix multiplication
Determine ω, the smallest exponent such that n×n matrices can be multiplied with n^(ω+o(1)) arithmetic operations. The best published bound is ω < 2.371339, a 2026 preprint claims ω < 2.371177, and it is conjectured that ω = 2.
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The graceful tree conjecture (Ringel–Kotzig)
Every tree with n vertices has a graceful labelling, i.e. vertex labels 0..n−1 whose edge differences are exactly 1..n−1. It has been verified for all trees with at most 35 vertices; extending this range and proving new classes graceful are open.
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The graph reconstruction conjecture
Every finite simple graph on at least three vertices is determined up to isomorphism by its deck, the multiset of its vertex-deleted subgraphs. Verified by computer for all graphs up to 13 vertices; open in general.
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The Hubble tension
Explain why local distance-ladder measurements of the Hubble constant H0 disagree with the value inferred from the cosmic microwave background under ΛCDM, or show that the disagreement is systematic.
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The invariant subspace problem for Hilbert spaces
Does every bounded linear operator on a separable infinite-dimensional complex Hilbert space have a non-trivial closed invariant subspace? The answer is negative for some Banach spaces and positive for many operator classes. The Hilbert space case is open.
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The inverse Galois problem over Q
Decide whether every finite group occurs as the Galois group of a Galois extension of Q. All sporadic groups are now realised (M23 in 2026); most transitive groups of degree 24 are not yet.
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The Jacobian conjecture in two variables
Prove or disprove that a polynomial map C^2 → C^2 with non-zero constant Jacobian determinant has a polynomial inverse. The conjecture was disproved in dimension 3 (and higher) in July 2026; the plane case remains open.
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The Kakeya conjecture in dimensions n ≥ 4
Show that every Kakeya (Besicovitch) set in R^n has Hausdorff and Minkowski dimension n. The plane is classical and R^3 was settled by Wang and Zahl in 2025; all dimensions n ≥ 4 remain open.
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The kissing number in dimension 5
Determine τ5, the maximum number of non-overlapping unit spheres touching a central unit sphere in R^5. Currently 40 ≤ τ5 ≤ 44.
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The log-rank conjecture in communication complexity
Is the deterministic communication complexity of every Boolean matrix M bounded by a polynomial in log rank(M)? The best upper bound is O(√rank) (Sudakov–Tomon), and the largest known separation is quadratic in log rank.
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The lonely runner conjecture
For k+1 runners with distinct constant speeds on a unit circular track, each runner is at some time at distance at least 1/(k+1) from all others. Computer-assisted proofs now cover up to 13 runners; the general case is open.
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The paradox of the plankton
Explain why many plankton species competing for the same few limiting resources coexist, and show quantitatively which mechanisms account for observed diversity in real communities.
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The perfect cuboid problem
Decide whether a box exists whose three edges, three face diagonals and space diagonal are all integers. Exhaustive searches show the space diagonal of any such box would exceed 2^53.
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The solar coronal heating problem
Determine which physical mechanisms heat the solar corona to millions of kelvin above a photosphere of about 5,800 K, and in what proportion, using public spacecraft data and simulations.
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The strong CP problem
Explain why the CP-violating θ parameter of QCD is experimentally smaller than about 10^-10 when nothing in the Standard Model requires it to be small.
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The twin prime conjecture and bounded prime gaps
Prove that there are infinitely many primes p with p + 2 prime. Intermediate target is to lower H_1 = liminf (p_{n+1} − p_n), proved at most 246 in published work; unrefereed 2026 work claims 240, 212 and 186.
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The Unique Games Conjecture
Khot's conjecture (2002) that approximating the value of unique games is NP-hard. Its imperfect-completeness 2-to-2 variant was proven in 2018, but the full conjecture remains open.
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Theory of the glass transition
Determine whether the dramatic slowdown of supercooled liquids reflects an underlying thermodynamic phase transition (such as an ideal glass at a Kauzmann temperature) or is purely dynamical.
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P versus NP
Decide whether every problem whose solutions can be verified in polynomial time can also be solved in polynomial time (Clay Millennium Prize Problem). A full solution is not expected here; the goal is mapped barriers and verifiable partial results.
Sub-problems: Explicit Boolean circuit lower bounds
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The Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer conjecture
Prove that the rank of an elliptic curve over Q equals the order of vanishing of its L-function at s = 1, together with the refined leading-term formula (Clay Millennium Prize Problem). A full solution is not expected here.
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The Hodge conjecture
Prove that on a non-singular complex projective variety every rational Hodge class is a rational linear combination of classes of algebraic cycles (Clay Millennium Prize Problem). A full solution is not expected here.
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The Riemann Hypothesis
Prove that every non-trivial zero of the Riemann zeta function has real part 1/2 (Clay Millennium Prize Problem). A full solution is not expected here; the goal is verifiable partial progress.
Sub-problems: Bounds on the de Bruijn–Newman constant Λ
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Yang–Mills existence and mass gap
Prove that for every compact simple gauge group a non-trivial quantum Yang–Mills theory exists on R^4 and has a mass gap Δ > 0 (Clay Millennium Prize Problem).
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10-point multi-point Seshadri constant on ℙ^2
Let x_1,…,x_10 be very general points of ℙ^2, and let π:X→ ℙ^2 be the blow-up of ℙ^2 at these points. Let L denote the pullback to X of the class of a line in ℙ^2, and let E_1,…,E_10 denote the corresponding exceptional divisors.
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3D critical Bochner–Riesz exponent
In harmonic analysis, for λ > 0 let T^λ denote the Bochner–Riesz operator on ℝ^3, initially defined for Schwartz functions f ∈ S(ℝ^3) by T^λ f(x) := ∫_ℝ^3 (1-lvert ξ rvert^2)_+^λ widehatf(ξ)e^ix· ξ dξ, where widehatf denotes the Fourier transform of f and (t)_+ := max\t,0\.
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4-slope Kakeya-type sum-difference constant
C_3c = SD(\0,1,2,∞\;-1) is the least exponent such that one has the inequality |A stackrelG- B| ≤ max(|A|, |B|, |A stackrelG+ B|, |A stackrelG+ 2B|)^C_3c whenever A, B are finite subsets of reals and G ⊂ A × B, where A stackrelG± rB := a ± rb: a ∈ A, b ∈ B.
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A Linear Programming Bound
For any dimension n, let C(n) denote the quantity C(n) := π^n/2/Γ(n/2+ 1) inf_f (r/2)^n f(0)/hat f(0) where f ranges over integrable continuous functions f := ℝ^n → ℝ, not identically zero, with hat f(ξ) ≥ 0 for all ξ and f(x) ≤ 0 for all |x| ≥ r for some r>0.
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A Sidon set constant
C_5a is the smallest constant such that Sidon sets in \1,…,N\ have cardinality N^1/2 + (C_5a + o(1))N^1/4.
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Ambidextrous Moving Sofa Constant
The ambidextrous moving sofa constant C_41b asks for the maximum area of a sofa, as defined in C_41a that can navigate both left and right corners inside a Z-shaped corridor of width 1, where the corners are sufficiently far apart.
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An autocorrelation constant related to Sidon sets
C_1a is the largest constant for which one has max_-1/2 ≤ t ≤ 1/2 ∫_ℝ f(t-x) f(x) dx ≥ C_1a (∫_-1/4^1/4 f(x) dx)^2 for all non-negative f : ℝ → ℝ.
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An autocorrelation problem related to difference bases
Let C be the smallest constant such that min_0 ≤ t ≤ 1 ∫_ℝ f(x) f(x+t) dx ≤ C ‖f‖_L^1(ℝ)^2 for f ∈ L^1(ℝ). What is C?
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An autocorrelation problem with functions that can take negative values
Let C be the best constant for which one has max_-1/2 ≤ t ≤ 1/2|∫_ℝ f(t-x) f(x) dx| ≥ C (∫_-1/4^1/4 f(x) dx)^2 for all f : [-1/4,1/4] → ℝ (note f can take negative values). What is C?
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Approximation ratio for quantum Max Cut
Quantum Max Cut is the quantum analog of Max Cut. Given a graph G = (E,V), it asks for the maximum eigenvalue of H_G = Σ_(ij) ∈ E (I - X_iX_j - Y_iY_j - Z_i Z_j), where X_i, Y_i, Z_i are the Pauli matrices acting on the i'th tensor factor and trivially on all other coordinates.
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Asymptotic counting exponent for partial Hadamard matrices
For integers n ≥ 2 and t ≥ 1, an n × t partial Hadamard matrix is a matrix with entries in \± 1\ whose rows are pairwise orthogonal. Let N_n,t denote the number of such matrices. For every fixed n one has N_n,4t = [1+o(1)] A_n,4t qquadas t → ∞, where A_n,4t := 2^4nt+(n-1)^2(8π t)^-n(n-1)/4.
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Asymptotic Dobrowolski constant for Lehmer’s problem
Let α be a nonzero algebraic number of degree d, with minimal polynomial over ℤ f(X)=a_dΠ_i=1^d (X-α_i), where a_d>0 and α_1,…,α_d are the conjugates of α. Define the Mahler measure of α by M(α) := a_dΠ_i=1^d max1,lvert α_irvert.
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Asymptotic essential-dimension ratio of the symmetric groups
For each integer n ≥ 1, let S_n be the symmetric group on n letters. Over a base field k, the essential dimension ed_k(S_n) is the smallest integer d such that the general degree-n polynomial x^n + a_1 x^n-1 + ⋯ + a_n can be reduced to a d-parameter form by a Tschirnhaus transformation.
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Asymptotic line-count constant for smooth degree-d surfaces in ℙ^3 in characteristic 0
For each integer d ≥ 3, let ℓ_0(d) denote the maximal number of lines contained in a smooth surface of degree d in ℙ^3_ℂ. We define C_76 := limsup_d→∞ℓ_0(d)/d^2. The constant C_76 measures the quadratic growth rate of the maximal line count on smooth complex degree-d surfaces.
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Beurling–Ahlfors transform constant
In harmonic analysis, the Beurling–Ahlfors transform B (also called the Ahlfors–Beurling operator) is the singular integral operator on L^p(ℂ), 1<p<∞, defined by Bf(z) = -1/π p.v.∫_ℂ f(w)/(z-w)^2 dm(w) = -1/π lim_ε→ 0^+∫_lvert w-zrvert>varepsilonf(w)/(z-w)^2 dm(w), where dm is Lebesgue measure on…
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