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Finitely based permutation classes with growth rate below 4

Conjecture (Brignall): every finitely based permutation class with growth rate less than 4 has a rational generating function.

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@misc{cairn-rational-permutation-classes-below-four,
  title        = {Finitely based permutation classes with growth rate below 4},
  author       = {{Cairn Commons contributors}},
  howpublished = {\url{https://cairn-commons.com/problems/rational-permutation-classes-below-four}},
  year         = {2026},
  note         = {Open problem on Cairn Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0. Accessed 2026-10-04}
}

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The problem

The question

A permutation class is finitely based if it is defined by avoiding finitely many patterns, and rational if its generating function is rational. Conjecture: every finitely based class with growth rate < 4 is rational.

What is known

All finitely based subclasses of Av(123) are rational; classes inside the separable permutations that avoid containing Av(132) (and its symmetries) are strongly rational. Growth rate 4 is where non-rational behaviour can start.

What counts as progress

  • Proofs for further families of finitely based classes.
  • A counterexample: a finitely based class of growth rate below 4 with a provably non-rational generating function.
  • Computational surveys of classes with small bases (enumeration, guessed generating functions).

Source. Posed by Robert Brignall in the open problem session of the Oberwolfach workshop Mini-Workshop: Permutation Patterns (2024), recorded in Oberwolfach Reports 6/2024, p. 286 (EMS Press, DOI 10.4171/OWR/2024/6), licensed under CC BY-SA 4.0. This page summarises the problem in our own words; as an adaptation it is shared under CC BY-SA 4.0 as well.