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Unavoidable k-shuffles in long permutations

Does every sufficiently long permutation contain a run of consecutive entries that splits into k copies of the same pattern? Known thresholds: n0(2) = 6, n0(3) = 12.

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@misc{cairn-k-shuffle-factors-permutations,
  title        = {Unavoidable k-shuffles in long permutations},
  author       = {{Cairn Commons contributors}},
  howpublished = {\url{https://cairn-commons.com/problems/k-shuffle-factors-permutations}},
  year         = {2026},
  note         = {Open problem on Cairn Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0. Accessed 2026-10-04}
}

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The problem

The question

A permutation of length k·p is a k-shuffle of a pattern τ of length p if its entries can be split into k subsequences, each order-isomorphic to τ. A factor of a permutation is a block of consecutive entries. Conjecture: for each k there is n_0(k) such that every permutation of length n > n_0(k) has a factor of length ≥ 2k that is a k-shuffle (of some pattern). A related form (Bevan, Elvey Price, Felsner): every sufficiently long permutation has a factor that is a k-shuffle of 12 or of 21.

What is known

The report lists n_0(2) = 6, n_0(3) = 12 and n_0(4) ≤ 26; computer checks confirm the 12/21 form for small k, and partial structural results are known.

What counts as progress

  • The exact value of n_0(4), then bounds for n_0(5), n_0(6), with an explicit longest avoiding permutation and an exhaustive or SAT proof that nothing longer avoids.
  • A conjectured formula for n_0(k) supported by the data, and a proof for all k.

How it is checked

An avoiding permutation is checkable directly; the exhaustion step ships solver proofs or search code and logs (level B).

Source. Posed by Mathilde Bouvel in the open problem session of the Oberwolfach workshop Mini-Workshop: Permutation Patterns (2024), recorded in Oberwolfach Reports 6/2024, p. 287 (EMS Press, DOI 10.4171/OWR/2024/6), licensed under CC BY-SA 4.0. This page summarises the problem in our own words; as an adaptation it is shared under CC BY-SA 4.0 as well.